Oil and Gas Trends

Upstream Industry Highlights

US LNG Exports to Europe Set to Rise Further: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that US LNG supplies to Europe will continue to grow, reinforcing the United States’ role as the world’s leading LNG exporter. This trend follows Europe’s move to reduce reliance on Russian gas, with new long-term off-take agreements expected to support further export growth to the region.

China Suspends All US LNG Imports Amid Trade Tensions: In a significant shift, China has suspended all LNG imports from the United States as trade tensions escalate. This sudden move leaves a gap in the US LNG export market and underscores the geopolitical risks facing American LNG producers, who must now seek alternative buyers for their growing export volumes.

Historic April Selloff Hits Oil Market Amid Trade War and OPEC+ Supply Increases: April 2025 saw the largest monthly loss in oil prices since 1988, with Brent crude falling toward $63 per barrel. The US-led trade war has weakened global economic growth and energy demand, while OPEC+ has loosened supply curbs, further pressuring prices. Analysts warn that additional OPEC+ production increases could prolong the downturn.

US Oil Companies Reduce Interest Expenses Despite Rising Rates: Despite higher general interest rates since 2022, US oil companies have managed to lower their real net interest expenses per barrel through improved drilling efficiency, higher oil prices, and structurally lower debt needs. According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 2024, interest expenses per barrel of oil equivalent for 26 publicly traded US oil companies averaged about $1.50-just 6% of production expenses-down from pre-pandemic levels even as the federal funds rate stayed above 4%.

US LNG Export Surge: Shifting the Natural Gas Landscape

The US upstream sector is undergoing a significant transformation as a new wave of LNG export projects comes online. This edition explores how these developments are reshaping the natural gas market, the implications for gas-focused basins, and how operators are positioning themselves for growth.

LNG Export Capacity Expands Rapidly

US LNG exports are the leading driver of natural gas demand growth in 2025. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), LNG gross exports are projected to increase by 19% to 14.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and by 15% to 16.4 Bcf/d in 2026. This surge is powered by the start-up of major new facilities, including Plaquemines LNG (Phases 1 and 2), Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, and Golden Pass LNG, which together will expand US LNG export capacity by nearly 50% once fully operational.

Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 began exports in December 2024 and is expected to ramp up fully by April 2025, while Corpus Christi Stage 3 shipped its first cargo in February 2025. Venture Global LNG plans to bring Plaquemines Phase 2 online by September 2025, further boosting capacity.

Haynesville Basin: Positioned for Export Growth

The Haynesville Shale, spanning east Texas and northwest Louisiana, is strategically located near Gulf Coast LNG terminals and is a focal point for producers and investors anticipating increased LNG demand. The region’s gas, characterized by lower impurities, is particularly suited for liquefaction. Recent policy changes, including the lifting of restrictions on new LNG projects, have spurred a renewed focus on Haynesville, with producers ramping up drilling and considering asset expansions or divestitures to capitalize on rising demand.

Market Impacts: Prices, Storage, and Global Demand

The surge in LNG exports is already impacting domestic supply-demand balances and prices. US natural gas prices have risen in 2025, with Henry Hub futures averaging $3.74/MMBtu in Q3, up 17% year-over-year. This price resilience comes despite a slight dip in production and a lower gas rig count, as storage inventories remain tight-standing 4% below the five-year average in April 2025.

On the global stage, European and Asian LNG pricing dynamics and geopolitical events are dictating both the volume and destinations of US LNG exports. While Europe remains the primary destination, North American exporters are increasingly targeting Asian markets, as evidenced by recent sales agreements and shifting trade flows.

Policy and Regulatory Developments

The US government recently rescinded a Biden-era policy that required LNG projects to commence exports within seven years of regulatory approval, returning to a more flexible, case-by-case extension approach. This change is expected to facilitate project development and provide greater certainty for long-term investments in LNG infrastructure.

What’s Next?

The US LNG export boom is set to redefine the natural gas market both domestically and globally. For upstream professionals, the focus will be on agility-adapting drilling programs, investing in technology, and monitoring policy shifts to capture new opportunities in this rapidly evolving landscape.